* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932013 06/16/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 27 30 33 34 37 37 39 40 42 43 V (KT) LAND 20 23 24 25 30 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 30 V (KT) LGE mod 20 23 24 25 28 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 15 17 14 16 16 11 14 9 11 9 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 3 0 0 2 -3 -2 -2 0 -1 4 0 SHEAR DIR 247 222 224 222 224 250 251 246 237 209 224 221 232 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.5 29.0 29.3 29.1 28.7 28.9 28.7 28.4 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 139 140 140 141 144 152 157 153 147 150 147 142 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 138 137 137 139 145 150 147 139 142 138 134 127 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 8 8 10 8 8 8 9 10 10 9 8 700-500 MB RH 75 71 73 70 67 72 72 69 68 68 65 65 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 5 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 52 50 40 22 16 8 -6 -2 9 22 23 42 21 200 MB DIV 107 106 91 58 44 55 12 22 19 38 25 50 15 700-850 TADV 6 3 6 3 0 -6 -6 -6 -5 -4 -1 -1 0 LAND (KM) -53 -97 -42 -5 39 -158 -166 -77 -133 -190 -135 -88 0 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.0 15.4 15.8 16.1 16.7 17.1 17.5 17.8 18.1 18.4 18.8 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 83.7 84.9 86.1 87.2 88.3 90.3 92.3 94.3 96.4 98.5 100.4 102.5 104.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 12 0 48 17 33 0 34 36 0 33 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 19. 25. 30. 34. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -18. -19. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 13. 14. 17. 17. 19. 20. 22. 23. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932013 INVEST 06/16/13 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 45% is 3.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932013 INVEST 06/16/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)