* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922012 08/08/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 39 46 53 57 60 59 59 57 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 32 39 46 53 57 60 59 59 57 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 35 40 46 52 57 58 57 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 9 8 5 2 2 3 11 17 21 22 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 4 5 6 8 5 5 0 1 3 2 1 SHEAR DIR 69 75 98 124 100 116 215 260 250 244 238 234 240 SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.3 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 131 129 129 128 126 125 129 134 136 137 138 140 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 129 128 126 125 124 128 134 135 134 134 136 136 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 61 56 52 54 54 50 45 45 43 42 43 43 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 9 10 9 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 24 15 12 9 1 3 17 13 14 10 6 4 -16 200 MB DIV -28 -24 -17 -19 -28 -28 -1 17 32 22 2 17 9 700-850 TADV -11 -11 -9 -9 -9 -6 -3 -8 -6 -7 0 3 2 LAND (KM) 1770 1770 1782 1715 1614 1408 1205 1029 917 898 762 644 596 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.5 12.9 13.1 13.2 13.2 13.0 13.0 13.2 13.7 14.2 15.0 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 34.6 35.9 37.2 38.5 39.8 42.4 45.1 47.8 50.5 52.8 54.9 56.9 59.0 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 10 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 9 13 23 21 18 28 21 20 19 24 30 46 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 13. 12. 10. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 1. -2. -4. -7. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 14. 21. 28. 32. 35. 34. 34. 32. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922012 INVEST 08/08/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -23.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922012 INVEST 08/08/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)