* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL112013 10/02/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 40 40 41 44 48 49 52 52 51 49 V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 40 40 41 44 48 49 52 52 51 49 V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 40 40 41 42 45 50 55 58 58 58 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 18 14 9 12 8 15 11 17 15 21 25 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 6 5 0 -1 -4 -2 -2 -1 0 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 319 328 344 335 326 326 270 257 272 270 251 248 265 SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.6 26.1 25.8 25.5 24.9 24.3 23.3 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 123 124 125 124 122 119 115 113 110 104 100 94 88 ADJ. POT. INT. 102 103 104 105 103 101 99 99 96 90 86 82 78 200 MB T (C) -56.1 -56.3 -56.3 -56.2 -56.2 -56.5 -56.2 -55.7 -55.9 -56.3 -55.9 -56.4 -57.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 33 34 37 40 41 43 47 46 42 42 35 30 27 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 6 5 6 6 4 2 850 MB ENV VOR -46 -57 -56 -54 -61 -72 -56 -38 -36 -39 -48 -44 -51 200 MB DIV -1 -26 -29 0 11 -3 5 14 2 13 -9 6 -13 700-850 TADV 1 8 7 5 5 5 0 0 2 9 2 -5 -2 LAND (KM) 2227 2202 2178 2137 2097 2038 1990 2017 2106 1994 1874 1772 1557 LAT (DEG N) 28.1 28.3 28.5 29.0 29.4 30.3 31.4 32.4 33.3 34.0 34.7 36.0 37.7 LONG(DEG W) 43.7 43.8 43.9 43.7 43.5 42.6 41.1 38.6 35.6 33.0 31.2 29.2 27.0 STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 4 5 5 7 10 13 12 10 9 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 1 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 3. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 11. 13. 15. 18. 20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 9. 12. 12. 11. 9. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112013 JERRY 10/02/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 50.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 10.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112013 JERRY 10/02/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112013 JERRY 10/02/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)