* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912013 06/05/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 31 33 32 31 27 24 21 18 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 31 33 32 31 27 26 26 28 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 23 21 24 26 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 21 21 17 18 21 20 25 32 37 44 51 44 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 3 1 6 4 3 2 3 -3 -1 -7 4 SHEAR DIR 270 278 276 265 255 273 247 244 223 227 225 233 250 SST (C) 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.2 26.5 25.0 23.4 23.2 20.0 POT. INT. (KT) 122 123 122 121 120 120 123 126 120 107 97 96 82 ADJ. POT. INT. 105 106 106 104 102 103 108 112 109 97 88 86 76 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.1 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.4 -54.3 -55.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 10 10 12 10 11 7 9 5 6 700-500 MB RH 58 55 53 50 47 45 44 49 55 51 53 50 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 10 12 13 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 20 10 28 23 27 25 0 -7 -47 -32 -56 -74 200 MB DIV 58 53 33 62 47 30 34 28 67 20 30 4 36 700-850 TADV -1 -7 0 3 -3 -3 0 6 6 14 10 -5 36 LAND (KM) 204 244 284 307 330 338 359 416 267 13 -57 -95 121 LAT (DEG N) 23.3 23.6 23.9 24.1 24.2 24.3 24.7 25.6 27.4 29.9 32.5 34.9 36.9 LONG(DEG W) 88.8 89.1 89.4 89.7 89.9 89.8 89.0 87.8 86.2 84.0 81.3 78.4 74.5 STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 4 3 1 2 6 9 14 16 17 18 19 HEAT CONTENT 6 7 7 7 6 7 13 25 7 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 22. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. -1. -7. -14. -19. -23. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 8. 7. 6. 2. -1. -4. -7. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912013 INVEST 06/05/13 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912013 INVEST 06/05/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED