* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982011 09/19/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 32 37 42 45 46 46 45 45 46 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 32 37 42 45 46 46 45 45 46 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 32 34 35 35 35 35 36 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 7 8 5 12 12 10 18 18 22 26 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 3 3 3 7 12 5 0 0 -4 1 SHEAR DIR 253 209 235 250 268 238 269 219 259 271 275 266 273 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.3 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 135 135 136 140 142 143 147 150 152 159 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 127 129 130 133 140 144 146 151 154 154 161 163 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 12 700-500 MB RH 68 69 72 72 73 71 65 60 55 48 48 46 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 12 14 14 15 13 12 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 40 38 46 49 48 52 50 45 42 38 30 24 28 200 MB DIV 43 32 15 27 31 35 16 38 11 5 -5 13 24 700-850 TADV -3 -1 -2 -3 -5 0 -9 0 0 -4 0 0 3 LAND (KM) 1642 1635 1623 1569 1517 1353 1197 1025 904 827 561 435 438 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 37.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 5 6 8 12 14 15 15 15 15 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 21 22 22 22 26 32 32 49 63 70 80 96 87 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 28. 32. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 8. 9. 7. 5. 3. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -15. -16. -18. -20. -21. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 12. 17. 20. 21. 21. 20. 20. 21. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982011 INVEST 09/19/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982011 INVEST 09/19/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982011 INVEST 09/19/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)