* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982011 08/24/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 23 22 22 23 25 28 28 24 21 18 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 23 22 22 23 25 28 28 24 21 18 V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 18 20 22 23 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 24 27 32 33 36 18 13 13 20 27 47 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 3 2 2 -1 2 -1 0 -2 3 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 218 220 224 233 232 237 262 295 312 3 40 75 94 SST (C) 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.9 27.4 27.7 28.0 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 120 119 119 119 119 123 128 133 137 138 138 135 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 110 107 107 107 107 109 114 118 120 121 119 115 110 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.1 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -54.5 -54.6 -55.0 -54.0 -53.2 -52.2 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 9 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 45 47 46 47 45 45 45 47 48 51 50 56 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 6 6 5 6 6 7 6 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 0 -10 -22 -23 -26 -22 -39 -48 -74 -114 -139 -148 200 MB DIV 19 27 14 10 5 17 38 -1 -13 -43 -40 -36 5 700-850 TADV 3 0 -1 0 2 -3 0 -1 1 1 1 0 -3 LAND (KM) 2253 2242 2235 2209 2127 1959 1815 1689 1594 1544 1555 1507 1316 LAT (DEG N) 22.8 23.2 23.5 23.8 24.0 24.6 25.3 26.1 27.2 28.4 29.7 31.2 32.6 LONG(DEG W) 42.5 43.4 44.3 45.2 46.1 48.0 49.8 51.6 53.5 55.3 56.8 58.3 59.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 7 7 7 12 19 22 20 14 14 11 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 720 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 25. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -5. -7. -9. -11. -16. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -2. -4. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 3. 3. -1. -4. -7. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982011 INVEST 08/24/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 11.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982011 INVEST 08/24/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982011 INVEST 08/24/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)