* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982011 08/20/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 34 37 42 47 49 50 46 43 39 37 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 34 37 42 47 49 50 46 43 39 37 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 36 41 44 46 47 48 49 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 6 6 7 10 8 10 13 19 21 25 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -3 -2 -3 0 2 1 -1 1 -4 0 0 SHEAR DIR 138 159 169 146 166 223 213 227 213 225 235 249 259 SST (C) 26.5 26.3 26.0 25.7 25.5 25.6 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.8 26.0 26.5 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 120 117 114 112 110 111 111 111 111 112 114 118 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 110 107 105 103 103 103 102 101 101 103 106 110 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 -53.1 -52.6 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 70 65 67 62 62 54 51 51 52 52 50 47 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 13 14 13 14 13 13 10 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 126 121 108 99 103 81 64 33 39 15 3 -8 -28 200 MB DIV 49 44 19 30 54 40 24 -7 10 5 17 -12 7 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 10 11 4 9 9 13 2 5 LAND (KM) 965 1072 1179 1305 1430 1644 1846 2034 2236 2354 2316 2294 2134 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.6 17.0 17.5 18.0 19.0 19.9 20.8 21.7 22.6 23.4 24.1 24.6 LONG(DEG W) 26.4 27.4 28.3 29.4 30.5 32.6 34.7 36.6 38.6 40.4 42.4 44.3 46.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 11 12 12 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 22. 23. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 7. 5. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -2. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 9. 12. 17. 22. 24. 25. 21. 18. 14. 12. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982011 INVEST 08/20/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982011 INVEST 08/20/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)